Shortage of Homes for Sale or Not?

Shortage of Homes for Sale or Not?

The national news media tells us that values of homes in the country have increased rapidly due to the shortage of homes for sale.  So I went to the Greater Hudson Valley MLS and checked if that is also true for the Lower Hudson Valley.  My area of interest was single family homes that were listed or for sale on or after January 1, 2015.  The Multiple Listing Service services list or sold the vast majority of homes in the Lower Hudson Valley.  The claim among real estate brokers is that a normal supply of homes for sale in a community is 9 months supply.  Anything less represents shortages and more suggest oversupply.

Let us look at Rockland County with 1196 single family homes for sale and 845 homes sold during 2015.  There is well over a 9 month supply of homes for sale. Thus, I would expect a drop in prices.  That does not seem to be the case the average price of a home in the area is around $400,000 and that represents a stable market for the last few years.  With no increases in values over the last few years and the large number of listings seem to be the reason that values are stable.

Now, Orange County has a huge supply of homes for sale, 2,211 as of now.  That is in comparison to the 1,320 sales completed during 2015.  Orange has over a one year supply of homes for sale.  The median value of a home has been dropping rapidly over the last year and is around $200,000.  There is an oversupply of homes for sale and thus values are going down rapidly.

Now to Westchester County with 3,320 homes for sale with 2,836 properties sold in 2015.  Over supply of homes for sale but values are going up slightly.  The median sales price of a home in Westchester is $650,000 which is a small increase in sales price over the last few years.

First thing, you cannot believe what you read in the national newspapers.  They look at national trends not what going on in your back yard, or rather the Lower Hudson Valley.  There is a general oversupply of listings in this area and that keeps prices relatively stable. In Orange County with huge oversupply values  the prices continue to drop.

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